2027: Things Falling Apart Or Political Propaganda ? ||▪︎ By Peter Akande, PhD
14th of September, 2026
Peter Akande, PhD
There is nothing wrong with political analysis, but there is everything wrong with presenting political wishes as established facts.
The claim that Governor Seyi Makinde has “lost all political allies” is simply too sweeping to be taken seriously. Politics is dynamic. Alliances shift, politicians disagree and new alignments emerge. But disagreement with a politician does not automatically translate into political collapse.
Let me ask a simple question: when some people did not support Governor Makinde in the last general election, did heaven fall? Did Oyo State stop functioning? Did Makinde cease to be governor? Of course not.
The same principle applies today. People are free to support whoever they believe in. Political independence should not suddenly become “betrayal” simply because somebody refuses to follow a particular political direction.
The attempt to use the positions of the Alaafin and the Soun as evidence that Makinde has lost his traditional base also requires a proper understanding of history and circumstances. There was already a serious disagreement between the government and some traditional rulers over the chairmanship of the Oyo State Council of Obas and Chiefs, particularly over the decision to give the chairmanship to the Olubadan instead of maintaining the earlier rotation arrangement. The Alaafin and the Soun were among those who strongly objected to that development.
Therefore, if traditional rulers disagreed with the government over an institutional matter, should that automatically be interpreted as the governor “losing” them politically? No. A disagreement over the administration of a traditional institution is not necessarily a declaration of political war.
If we are going to analyse politics, let us analyse it honestly.
The claim that Makinde has lost “more than 200 Mogajis” also requires evidence. Who are these Mogajis? What resolution did they pass? When did they formally withdraw their support? Numbers should not become substitutes for facts.
The same caution applies to the Olubadan institution. The Olubadan is a respected traditional institution, and individual traditional title holders are entitled to their personal political preferences. But we should not casually transform individual positions into the official political position of the entire traditional institution.
And if Governor Makinde were to declare today that he supports President Bola Tinubu, would the same people celebrating political realignment call it a principled decision? Or would they describe it as political opportunism or “political born-again,” just as some people have used that language to describe the political realignment of individuals such as Reno Omokri and Daniel Bwala?
This is why political arguments must be consistent. What is acceptable when one politician does it should not suddenly become betrayal when another politician does the same thing.
The claim that Makinde has “lost PDP” and “lost Wike” is another example of the difference between political disagreement and political extinction. Politicians have fallen out before and later reconciled. Coalitions have collapsed and new ones have emerged. That is the nature of Nigerian politics.
And regarding the Labour Party, if there was indeed a political understanding that was later abandoned, those involved are entitled to explain what happened. But one political controversy does not automatically mean that “no political party will trust him again.”
Perhaps the most revealing part of the argument is the description of those around the governor as “political sucklings and babies.” That is not political analysis; it is political name-calling. A serious assessment should focus on structures, performance, party organisation, public opinion and measurable political support—not insults.
If the governor is truly as politically isolated as suggested, 2027 will provide the clearest test.
Elections are ultimately won by voters, not by social-media declarations.
Let us therefore allow the people of Oyo State to decide.
Political opponents may declare that things are falling apart, but declarations are not elections. Likewise, supporters should not assume that incumbency guarantees victory.
The sensible approach is to examine the facts, the structures and the mood of the people—and allow the ballot box to have the final word.
Politics is not a funeral procession. Alliances change, interests change and circumstances change. Those who are celebrating another politician’s alleged political death today may discover tomorrow that Nigerian politics has a very long memory and an even longer list of surprises.
